| Money Magee's Plays That Pay |
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Hello Again Racing Fans, Welcome to another edition of Money Magee’s “This Week on the Derby Trail”. This Saturday, there are three races on the Road to Louisville; the $70,000 Private Terms Stakes from Laurel Park, the $150,000 Swale Stakes (GII) and the $750,000 Florida Derby (GI), both from Gulfstream Park. The one mile Private Terms is more a prep for the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (GII) than for the Kentucky Derby (GI). Seven three-year-olds go the mile. Leading the way looks to be Miracle Wood winner DONT BLAME THE CAT. Winner of three in four lifetime starts, the Richard Dutrow trainee came from off of the pace and made a driving four-wide move to pass his rivals in his last. The runner up from that race, REGAL WARRIOR, comes back here also, looking to turn the tables on the victor. REGAL WARRIOR came from last and only missed by a length. The extra furlong here may be just what needs here. A new shooter to watch is PLANTATION. The undefeated Charles Town invader posts the best speed figure of any horse in the race and should be able to stretch out to a mile with no issues. Let’s go with the invader, PLANTATION to take the Private Terms. In the seven furlong Swale, nine sophomores go to the gate but only seven are Triple Crown nominated. This is another prep with an overwhelming early favorite. D’FUNNYBONE has been installed at 6-5 after handling the Hutcheson with relative ease last time out. After winning three of his first four career starts, he was overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He faces three from the Hutcheson here in the Swale, including third place finisher IBBOYEE. The Todd Pletcher trained IBBOYEE ran well in the Hutcheson, but his workouts since then have been less than stellar. But, the horse to look out for here may be DIXIE BAND. He won his first three races at Arlington Park last summer including the Arlington-Washington Futurity (GIII) but finished tenth of 14 in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland to end his freshman season. This will be his first race back after the five month layoff and may need a race and he is also untested on traditional dirt, but his works have steadily improved since late January with his best being his most recent on March 16 where he posted a bullet at four furlongs. D’FUNNYBONE will have some speed at the front with him this time, but will it be enough to wear him down? DIXIE BAND should not be too far behind and will figure at the finish, but take D’FUNNYBONE in the Swale, he looks too tough. Finally, in the first Grade 1 event on the Derby Trail, it is the mile and one-eighth Florida Derby. This race has produced three Kentucky Derby winners in the last decade; Monarchos, Barbaro and Big Brown. This year, 11 look to follow in their footsteps including Barbaro’s full brother LENTENOR. He will more than likely be stalking the early speed of RULE, MINER’S RESERVE and possibly GAME ON DUDE, FIRST DUDE and RADIOHEAD. With all of that potential early speed, let’s look for a closer, which will also be the way to play the Kentucky Derby. SOARING EMPIRE can close, but takes a huge step up in this one. PULSION has shown that trait as well, but did not take well to this dirt last time out. His best running seems to be on synthetics. The interesting closer here is PLEASANT PRINCE. He came from well back in the Fountain of Youth to finish fourth. The distance should not be an issue, but getting a clean trip to pass the tiring leaders may be. He does have Julien Leparoux in the saddle as he did in the Fountain of Youth. And, at 15-1, he will pay nicely. Let’s go with the big upset, PLEASANT PRINCE, in the Florida Derby. |